On the Irish Futures trading platform Intrade, you can check out the market expection of who will win the US presidential elections. It doesn't look too good for Kerry, judging by the current price of the Bush Future, which is still above 50 (if he wins, a holder will garner 100), while Kerry trades at about 40ish.
Unfortunately for us Mac users, the Java scripts used on that website appear to be so non-standard that they periodically kill both IE and Safari, so I was able to glean only very little of the action. Dear Intrade Owners, if you want to broaden the liquidity of your market, make it usable for Mac users!!
What's happening to my own personal prediction from early June that Kerry will win? Well, I still maintain it, even though thanks to his laggard and tepid response to the Vietnam debacle, it doesn't look so good now. The Swifties attack is really quite well crafted, I have to admit - it's probably asking too much of the electorate to differentiate between the soldier's action (which was impeccable in the words of the President) and the subsequent politician's action (i.e. attacking the Vietnam war - which was at least legitimate).
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